Some figures are chilling. And those published on Thursday, November 30th by the Institut Paris Région (IPR) are among them. According to a new study by the urban planning agency, the demand for social housing has exploded in the Île-de-France (IDF) region over twelve years. Between 2010 and 2022, the number of households that applied for housing nearly doubled, from 406,000 to 783,000, representing 1.75 million people.
“We have never seen such an increase,” worries Martin Omhovère, director of the Housing and Society department at the agency. “Yet, social housing is the only alternative for affordable housing in a capital region marked by very high rents and purchase prices.”
More than one in seven households in the region (14%) has made such a demand, even though 76% of Île-de-France residents are eligible, according to INSEE. However, only one in ten requests is fulfilled each year, the Institute has calculated. With only 75,000 allocations in 2022, the estimated waiting time to obtain this housing rose to 10.4 years in IDF (16.2 years in Paris!), compared to 5.8 years nationwide.
“Paris and the IDF account for nearly a third (32%) of the national demand for social housing, whereas its population represents less than 20% of the inhabitants,” explains the housing director. “And the situation is getting worse.”
Moving to neighboring departments is no longer enough: this serves as a backlog market, causing their demand and prices to rise. Despite rent controls in effect in some municipalities (Paris, Plaine Commune, Est Ensemble), social rents remain on average three times lower than those in the private sector, which is also under severe pressure.
Beyond the figures, this “quick note” goes further. For the first time, it provides a detailed and recent portrait (including 2022 data) of the applicants and compares their housing needs to the supply of social housing. And once again, the result is unequivocal: social housing construction in IDF does not correspond to the profiles and aspirations of its future occupants. The mismatch is striking in terms of property type (studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, etc.) and rental amounts.
The size of the properties offered is rather family-oriented (with 36% offering three-bedroom units and 31% offering four-bedroom units or more), while small units are scarce (33% of studios and one-bedroom units) even though two-thirds of new applicants (who do not already live in social housing) are young, living alone, looking for studio or two-bedroom units.
The contrast is also seen in terms of prices. Income ceilings are imposed for each type of social housing. Housing financed by the Integrated Low-Cost Rental Loan (PLAI) has the lowest income caps (1,115 euros per month after tax for a single person in IDF). They are allocated to tenants in situations of great precarity. The study’s two authors, Philippe Pauquet and Sandrine Beaufils, note that “72% of Île-de-France applicant households have incomes that would allow them to qualify for very social housing (PLAI).” However, only 40% of the available housing is suitable for them.
Even worse, if we look at the recent production of housing (2001-2010), their proportion drops to 10.5%! “And even then, this rate has been doubled, and very significant efforts have been made by public policies to build more new, very affordable housing,” notes Martin Omhovère, concerned for the new applicants, 66% of whom are active. “If a third of the applicants for social housing already live in social housing, two-thirds do not, they are still staying with their parents, friends, or in the private rental market in deteriorating conditions. They represent a growing proportion of people who are not properly housed.”
“There needs to be a shift from thinking in terms of operations to repay the cost of land and construction, to focusing on satisfying a need based on the resources of Île-de-France residents and being clear and transparent about the type of more affordable housing we want to build,” the director concludes.
The executive branch seems to have become aware of the housing crisis. In order to increase the social housing stock and reduce the inventory of unsold properties from developers, it asked Action Logement and CDC Habitat (a subsidiary of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations) to purchase 47,000 new housing units. In mid-November, Élisabeth Borne announced another round of purchases in 2024, this time by private actors (retirement groups, insurance companies, etc.).
But it is not certain that this will be enough, according to professionals. The majority of these purchases concern intermediate rent housing, with rental amounts that are far too excessive for most low-income applicants (PLAI). “CDC Habitat and Action Logement have received three times as many proposals because developers are eager to sell at cost or even at a loss,” sighs Pascal Boulanger, president of the Federation of Property Developers (FPI). “The problem today is that the housing crisis is so severe that a developer is more likely to stop building than to sell at a loss.”
