The communes where at least 1 centimeter of snow is recorded on the ground on the 24th or 25th of December are becoming fewer and fewer. The phenomenon could disappear by the end of the century.
Will “white” Christmases, where at least 1 centimeter of snow is recorded on the ground on the 24th or 25th of December, soon be nothing more than a distant memory in France? Christmas Eve 2023 will be mild – one of the mildest in the south since 1983 – and marked by more autumnal than wintry weather. “With climate change, snowfall in plains has become much less frequent since the 1980s, as has the duration of snow cover in mountainous areas,” explains Météo France in a report published on December 20.
And while the collective imagination associates Christmas with snowflakes, snow “has always been rare at this time” except in the northeast. But for over ten years, snow has completely disappeared in some cities during the holiday season, including cities in regions “accustomed to winter snow” such as Strasbourg, Nancy, and Besançon.
In Besançon (Doubs), for example, the last “white” Christmas was in 2010. According to forecasts, this will be the thirteenth Christmas without snow in the city near the Swiss border. “Such a series of ‘green’ Christmases has never occurred in Besançon since 1949,” recalls the meteorological service. In 74 years, the city has only seen snow on the ground on 10 Christmas Days.
Besançon is not alone. Since 2000, Strasbourg has only had one snowy episode on December 25th, in 2010. The same goes for Caen, Paris, Nevers, and Montauban. The phenomenon goes even further back for some municipalities, according to Météo France’s data: 1961 for Rennes, 1962 for Biarritz, Marseille, and Brest, 1970 for Poitiers, and 1996 for Nantes and Mulhouse.
According to a modeling by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, the probabilities of experiencing “white” Christmases will decrease, or even disappear, in certain regions if global warming exceeds 3°C by 2100 – this is the worst-case scenario anticipated by the Copernicus Institute.
By the end of the century, in 2094, still according to the worst-case scenario, the probabilities of a “white” Christmas will be zero everywhere in France, except for the eastern half.
