Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: newly committed aid is decreasing from August 2023 to January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institute, published in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate struggles to pass aid, and the European Union (EU) has faced difficulties in approving a €50 billion aid package on February 1, 2024, due to Hungarian opposition. It is worth noting that these two aid packages are not yet included in the latest report by the Kiel Institute, which only goes up to January 2024.
The data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is centered around a core group of countries: the United States, Germany, and countries in northern and eastern Europe, which promise both high financial aid and advanced weaponry. In total, since February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have pledged at least €276 billion in military, financial, or humanitarian aid.
In absolute value, the wealthiest countries have been the most generous. The United States are by far the largest donors, with over €75 billion in announced aid, including €46.3 billion in military aid. The European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (€64.86 billion) and aid from the EU funds (€93.25 billion), totaling €158.1 billion.
When these contributions are compared to each country’s gross domestic product (GDP), the ranking changes. The United States drops to twentieth place (0.32% of their GDP), far behind neighboring countries of Ukraine or former Soviet republics that are friendly. Estonia leads the aid-to-GDP ratio with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, all with common borders with Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the start of the conflict.
In terms of the percentage of GDP, France ranks twenty-seventh, having committed 0.07% of its GDP, just behind Greece (0.09%). The aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – France was twenty-fourth in April 2023, and thirteenth in the summer of 2022.
