Two years before the next municipal election, an Ipsos-La Tribune Dimanche survey places Rachida Dati in a position of strength. Far behind the new Minister of Culture, Anne Hidalgo finds herself in a delicate situation after ten years at City Hall.
Even though the election is far away, there are still many questions about the candidates, possible alliances, and the evolution of voting intentions. Ipsos has tested several hypotheses to try and understand different scenarios. Despite this, the various scenarios help to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.
By becoming Minister of Culture and distancing herself from the Republicans, Rachida Dati seems to have made a smart move. In every scenario, she would come out way ahead. “The Renaissance electorate supports her, and the LR electorate has not abandoned her,” explains Mathieu Gallard, Ipsos research director, in La Tribune-Dimanche.
If Rachida Dati managed to lead a list supported by both Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons, and Les Républicains, she would get 38% of the votes. This almost matches the total scores obtained by her lists (21.9%) and Macronist Agnès Buzyn’s lists (18%) in the 2020 municipal elections. Even if she were to be challenged by an LR list led by Senator and former mayor of the 16th arrondissement, Francis Szpiner, half of LR voters would still vote for her.
“There is room to maneuver,” says Mathieu Gallard. “With a 40% approval rating, she has a strong base. She is seen as a legitimate candidate, even one who can generate some enthusiasm.”
On the other hand, Anne Hidalgo’s decline is dramatic. In 2020, the Paris mayor gathered nearly 30% of the votes. In this survey, depending on the hypotheses, her score would only be 12 to 14%. Even Emmanuel Grégoire, her little-known first deputy, would perform better than her. Moreover, a list led by the ecologist Yannick Jadot would come out well ahead of her, with 17 to 18%.
It is worth noting that the cumulative votes when adding up the LFI, Ecologist, PS, and PC lists remain similar to 2020. “It is Anne Hidalgo’s unpopularity that is unsettling the left-leaning electorate. There is room for maneuver,” adds Mathieu Gallard. 40% of Parisians polled are very dissatisfied with Anne Hidalgo after ten years leading Paris.
The survey has been criticized by the left, especially for its methodology. Rémi Féraud, a socialist senator and President of the Paris en Commun group on the Paris Council, is surprised by a study conducted on a sample of 822 people surveyed across France, “not necessarily from Paris residents as stated in the technical sheet,” he asserts, ensuring that “the polling commission will have to be involved.” “These are voters who may not necessarily vote in Paris,” adds Aurélie Filipetti, Director of Culture in Paris.
