The launch of a Chinese space rocket with a weather satellite aboard became a geopolitical event in mid-April. This occurred shortly after a military maneuver in which China practiced attacks on Taiwan. Following this, Beijing announced a three-day no-fly zone in northern Taiwan, supposedly to protect planes from falling rocket parts. However, this would have had a massive impact on air traffic from Taiwan to South Korea and Japan. This move sparked global fears that China is testing a new measure to isolate Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province.
By 2027, China aims to be able to bring Taiwan back into the Middle Kingdom militarily, according to state and party leader Xi Jinping. An attack on the region would have worldwide consequences, causing an interruption in chip deliveries and affecting the production of many products, such as smartphones, computers, and cars. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea protested against the measure. China responded by shortening the no-fly zone to 27 minutes. But the political damage had already been done.
China’s surprise measure to warn against flights through the airspace for three days highlights gray area activities that apply pressure without direct use of force. These activities force Taiwan to surrender. Security expert Eric Heginbotham warns that such measures are very attractive for Beijing. They are less risky than a direct attack. According to war simulations, China would likely lose the battle for Taiwan, albeit at a horrendous cost to Taiwan, the US, and Japan.
Gray area activities such as sanctions, military maneuvers, inspections of Taiwanese ships, expansion of Chinese air surveillance, and no-fly zones are difficult to counter. It is challenging to find a consensus on when to hit back and how hard. At the same time, it is difficult to undo measures in the gray area. The situation is reversed, with Taiwan and its partners not having a good solution for them.
China’s construction of islands in the South China Sea, with which Beijing wants to assert its claim to the strategically important sea area, provides another example of gray area activities. Originally, China had asserted that it was not about military activities. Now, many islands are outposts of the People’s Liberation Army. Heginbotham and his team are running a simulation to determine whether this gray area strategy could be more worthwhile for China, looking at the economic consequences of such activities.
