Officially, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to compete under a neutral flag at the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris 2024. Unofficially, it is said that in Russia, banning athletes in the French capital would be seen as a humiliation by the current regime. This could be enough to consider a total absence of Russian athletes next summer, a first since the 1984 Los Angeles Games where the USSR decided not to send a delegation to the United States.
Facing the threat of being sidelined on the Olympic stage, the country at war with Ukraine since 2022 has been trying to give a boost to its sports diplomacy in recent months. On February 21, the Future Games opened in Kazan, combining sports and electronic disciplines. This international competition was directly conceived by Vladimir Putin who also announced the Brics Games, to be held in the same city of Kazan from June 12 to 23. The competition is expected to “host athletes from over 50 countries,” according to former water polo player and sports minister of the Republic of Tatarstan, Vladimir Leonov.
Even more symbolic, Putin aims to revive the Friendship Games, with the last edition curiously dating back to 1984, the year of the Los Angeles Games boycotted by the USSR. The goal is to host delegations from partner countries in Moscow and Yekaterinburg from September 15 to 29 to compete in events that resemble a replica of the Olympic Games. In 1984, the Friendship Games included 22 Olympic disciplines (all present in Los Angeles except football and synchronized swimming) as well as table tennis, tennis, and sambo (a martial art created in the USSR in the 1930s).
In the face of this renewed Russian soft power, a scenario where Vladimir Putin’s regime boycotts the Paris Games remains “a perfectly conceivable hypothesis,” says Lukas Aubin, a research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), specializing in sports geopolitics and Russia. “The probability of Russians being present is greater than the opposite. But there is a growing sentiment in the Russian media that Russian and Belarusian athletes may not be respected in Paris and that they should consider not going.”
However, would the Russian regime have an interest in boycotting the Games, a powerful propaganda tool, especially in the event of a significant medal haul? “Since the fall of the Soviet Union, we have seen that boycotts are not very effective,” says Lukas Aubin. “It is more useful to be present than absent, to take advantage of the media platform that an event like the Olympics generates.” Even with athletes competing under a neutral flag, “Putin can continue to use his rhetoric that Russia is fighting against all odds, that it is there despite adversity,” says the specialist.
“Russia would have a lot to lose by not coming to Paris,” says a source at the International Olympic Committee (IOC). “It would reinforce the sense of being shunned internationally, and I doubt that Putin would not take advantage in his own way of the showcase that the Games provide.” More diplomatically, the same source also points out that the Olympic truce, “symbolic as it may be,” should allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete “free from all geopolitical issues.”
With five months to go until the Paris 2024 Games, some Russian and Belarusian athletes are not waiting for their leaders’ approval to take the necessary steps to participate. According to a study by the independent Russian media outlet Holod, published in July 2023, over 200 Russian athletes have already applied for another nationality. Often, this nationality is Israeli. If these athletes obtain dual citizenship and qualify in their discipline, they practically have the opportunity to choose the nation they want to compete for. “Changing nationality exposes them to risks from the Russian state,” recalls Lukas Aubin. “It all depends on the individual statements these athletes make. If the statements are anti-Putin, they will be in danger.”
(1) The acronym BRICS refers to the alignment of four countries with vast territories, the BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, and China, to which South Africa joined in 2011.
