In accordance with the decisions announced by the members of the Federal Reserve this week, controlling the acceleration of inflation continues to be its primary objective.
After increasing the benchmark interest rate by 0.50% to place it in a range of 0.75%-1%, Jerome Powell made it clear that investors could expect an additional increase of 0.50% at each of the meetings of June and July, which would take the benchmark interest rate to the 1.75%-2% range, its highest level since September 2019.
However, analysts’ estimates suggest that in April inflation at the consumer level would have slowed down to +8.1%, from the increase of +8.5% recorded in March.
Additionally, at the producer level, the increase of +10.7% estimated by analysts is below the advance of +11.2% experienced in March.
In this way, it seems that inflationary pressures may have reached their peak and are beginning to ease.
If this scenario is confirmed, the projections about the additional increases that the members of the Federal Reserve would make on the reference interest rate could also fall.
At today’s close, according to futures contract prices, the benchmark interest rate would close 2022 in a range of 3%-3.25% with a probability of 43.9%.
On the other hand, consumer expectations about inflation continue to rise.
According to analysts’ estimates, inflation expectations for next year reached a new all-time high in April, standing at +6.8%, above the previous record of +6.6% set in March.
Analysts project that the producer price index rose +7.8% in April, below the +8.3% inflation experienced in March, continuing the slowdown that began in October last year.
However, at the consumer level, inflation would have accelerated to +1.9% in April from +1.5% in March.
The price index at the consumer level would have increased +7.4% in April, above the advance of +7.3% experienced in March.
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